Coventry Rugby v Caldy; managing expectations for the 23/24 season

Oh, call me Anytime that, every time you're losin' it And tell me Anyone and everyone who makes you feel like shit Because you know Anybody, everybody else can lie But honey, I won't See you with a, see you with a broken set of eyes

I swear that you are You are the future

Future Looks Good - OneRepublic

Being a Cov fan these days is a lot easier than it was a decade or so back.

Success on the pitch and a degree of stability off it (as far as the club is concerned rather than the Championship itself), makes for far happier times.

The mouth-watering prospect of another season of improvement, one in which we hopefully can narrow the gap still further between ourselves and the obvious favourites for the title, Ealing Trailfinders, is one that must surely whet the appetite of most Cov supporters in the build up to the season's opener against Caldy on Saturday.

For seven consecutive seasons now we've watched Cov progress from a mediocre National One side to one of the top clubs in the Championship. Rowland Winter showed us the roadmap back in 2016 and we've journeyed down our chosen path ever since. And for the last 18 months or so, Alex Rae appears to have had his foot pressed so firmly on the accelerator that towards the end of last season Cov was competitive with the two standout teams in the Championship and looking every bit a side capable beating anyone in the league.

I think many of us felt at the beginning of last season that we were still a good season or two off a top two finish, but the form we found ourselves in from January onwards suggested that there was little to choose between ourselves and both Ealing and Jersey. Indeed we beat Ealing and drew with Jersey during that period. The only game we lost was away to Pirates and that was by just 5 points.

Before Christmas, we'd lost heavily to both the top two sides, as well as to Hartpury in what was arguably our most disappointing performance of the season. But during those first three or four months the squad, consisting of a number of very young players many of whom had little or no Championship experience, were learning all the time.

That run of form in the second half of the season continued on into the pre-season games and although there was a slight blip with the home draw against Nottingham, a win, draw and last minute defeat to Premiership opposition in the Cup games ensured that we go into the season proper full of expectation.

The sad demise of Jersey has meant that instead of maybe four or five teams competing for the top three places along with Ealing, there's now just three or four - ourselves, Pirates, Doncaster and perhaps Bedford.

Doncaster, Pirates and, of course, Ealing appear to have recruited strongly, as indeed has Bedford although the club remains semi professional and might struggle to show the same levels of consistency over the course of the season that perhaps the full-time set ups might enjoy, with their access to training and opportunities for S&C work under the supervision of specialist coaches on a daily basis.

Ealing will remain everyone's favourite for the playoffs against the bottom Premiership side to determine if indeed there will be any promotion this year, but that tag of 'Champions-elect' was the case this time last season. Few foresaw Jersey's incredible run back then.

Much has been made of Ealing's marquee signings, in terms of the Championship anyway. The likes of Jordy Reid, Biyi Alo, Sami Mavinga, Mike Willemse and, of course, Billy Twelvetrees, whom The RPA refer to as a 'statement' signing. Certainly, Alo, Willemse and Mavinga will add some real power and pedigree to the scrum and in the Championship they will be formidable, but in the past Ealing hasn't always been able to fulfil its squads' obvious potential, despite winning the league in 21/22.

On paper at least, once again Ealing certainly look to have the advantage in terms of the quality and depth of its squad BUT as we saw last year that doesn't always equate to success on the pitch. Doncaster and Pirates have both either added to or rebuilt their squads, depending on how you look at the wholesale changes made, but with only twenty games in total clubs will need to hit the ground running and it might take a few games for both sides to bed in their players and get used to a new team and, for many players, a new league.

Which is precisely why I think Cov has an advantage over most sides this season. We've made relatively few changes to a squad that is beginning to have a pretty settled look to it and the changes we have made already appear to have strengthened it. Alex Rae said he would only bring in players who were performing at a level above those who were leaving and he appears to have been true to his word.

And whilst Ealing might be the big spenders in our league, Alex Rae and his coaches have already shown just how shrewd they are in the transfer market. Despite some big names coming into the league last season, I would suggest that in Pat Pellegrini and Will Chudley, Coventry had the two most influential. Both made TRP's Championship Dream Team and anyone who watched Cov on a regular basis will know the impact the two had on Coventry's performances.

But equally, Cov weren't reliant on them. When Pellegrini suffered an injury which put him on the sidelines for several weeks, up stepped Evan Mitchell to produce performances which belied his relative inexperience.

Strength in depth. The Academy's ability to bring though some quality youngsters is really starting to pay dividends. Louis James, James Martin and Tom Ball to add another three to the mix, with others coming through too.

But back to the latest signings.

This season it looks very much as if Matt Kvesic could be another gem. He's slipped below the radar a little with all of Ealing's big names, but together with Paddy Ryan, Cov's back row could be a force to be reckoned with when permed with any one of Bartlett, Ball, Nayalo and Stone. With Chudley and Pelligrini behind them and Tyas and Poole or Ma'asi in front, the spine of the side looks to be a strong as I can recall for many a long year.

And with power and pace in the backs, the future looks bright. If Ryan Hutler can remain fit, I think he and Martin could break all sorts of records this season given Coventry's propensity to play attacking rugby. Titherington, Wand and Rigg are more than capable of taking apart any side in our league and the really frightening thing for the opposition is that they are still young and are more than capable of further improvements in midfield as they play more games together

The area where I was a little concerned about was the front row, but I think the recent acquisition of Adam Nicol from Jersey Reds is just what was needed. There are now options at 1 and 3 which is so important especially once we get into the second half of the season and conditions get that much more difficult.

Remove Ealing from the equation and at home I think Cov should expect to go into any game as favourites. Away from home, Pirates in particular, and Doncaster and Bedford to a lesser extent, are a different proposition but Castle Park and Goldington Road don't hold quite the fear that they once did; we've certainly come away with wins at both grounds in recent seasons. The Mennaye is never a happy hunting ground for Cov though and the visit down there will be a real test of just how far this group of players has come this past year and a half.

Ealing though, home or away, is always going to be a massive test and one which might well determine the outcome of the league itself. Most of the current squad were involved in last season's win down at TFSG so it won't be quite as daunting and if the squad has got some momentum behind it going into the game towards the end of November, then who knows?

The outcomes of the games against some of the less fancied sides, the likes of Ampthill Hartpury and indeed Caldy on Saturday, games that we really should be winning and winning comfortably if we are going to be regarded as a credible threat to Ealing this season, are crucial. If I were to be a little critical of Coventry over the past few seasons, it's that on occasions we seem to have difficulty motivating ourselves against the 'bottom half' sides. Cov teams always seem to rise to the big occasion but at, say, Ampthill or Hartpury on a cold windy day, then it's never a given.

We know that on their day, any club in the Championship is capable of beating any other, but what Cov must ensure is that other clubs aren't allowed to have their day against us. Last season Caldy beat Ealing at home in a scenario that has happened to Coventry all too frequently in seasons past. Caldy's unexpected result did for Ealing in the end, an indication of just how impactful one slip up can be.

For probably 7 or 8 clubs in the league, genuine hopes of a promotion play off come April isn't a realistic proposition and with no relegation into National One this season, outwardly there doesn't seems a lot for them to play for. However for those clubs, games against the likes of Ealing, Coventry and Doncaster become their motivation, their playoff final, and as such makes it that much harder for us.

Titles are usually won, or lost, by small margins and I don't expect this season to be any different. In The Rugby Paper a couple of weeks back, Alex Rae talked down Cov's chances, instead preferring to 'big up' those of Bedford and Pirates and opining that the Championship is 'wide open but Ealing's to lose at the minute'.

It's hard to argue against that but if Alex Rae and his coaches are looking to make further progress this season, as they will be, then without Jersey in the mix, Cov must surely be targeting a top two finish? Talk of winning the league is unrealistic at this stage, but suggestions that we would want to push Ealing all the way aren't and if Ealing once again fail to cope with the pressures of teams below them snapping at their heels, then anything and everything is possible.

It all makes for an intriguing season.

I'm well aware that I'm already struggling to manage my own expectations. It's easy to talk yourself into believing that Coventry could and should be a top two team this season.

And it's all very well me talking the talk but for that to happen, then Coventry has to walk the walk and for them to do that, all the stars have to align.

And that always involves an element of good fortune somewhere along the way.

Ealing slipping up unexpectedly?

Cov getting one or two decisions going their way?

Or me winning the Euromillions and giving Cov the money to bring in Obano and Stuart.

Talk of Cov being an outside bet for the Championship this season seems ludicrous and I know I need to rein in my expectations but all supporters like to dream, nothing wrong with that.

Other than this season, I can't help but dream big.

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